Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
willbefinewin 1:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Galkynyshloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
willbefine
No games played over 6 months.
Galkynysh
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
738 picks · 466 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 572 bans
Tusk
526 picks · 451 bans
Tiny
524 picks · 378 bans
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 579 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 252 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 607 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 735 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% willbefine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% willbefine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:14
willbefine 56%Galkynysh 44%
The model gave 56% on willbefine — the game was taken by willbefine in 28:37.
Model check result
Model favoritewillbefine · 56%
Series resultwillbefine 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1