Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Mega Creeps Gamingwin 1:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
CChibaRibaloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mega Creeps Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
ChibaRiba
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
738 picks · 466 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 573 bans
Tusk
526 picks · 451 bans
Tiny
524 picks · 379 bans
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 578 bans
Snapfire
380 picks · 252 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 607 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 735 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Mega Creeps Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% ChibaRiba
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:30
Mega Creeps Gaming 48%ChibaRiba 52%
The model gave 52% on ChibaRiba — the game was taken by Mega Creeps Gaming in 38:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteChibaRiba · 52%
Series resultMega Creeps Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1