Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Sexywin 1:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yellow Shrekloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Sexy
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 2 games
Rikioften banned
9Class · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 1 game
Dark Willow
9Class · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
7jesu · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
Yellow Shrek
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
738 picks · 466 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 572 bans
Tusk
526 picks · 452 bans
Tiny
524 picks · 379 bans
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 578 bans
Snapfire
380 picks · 252 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 606 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 735 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:28
Team Sexy 67%Yellow Shrek 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 50:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 67%
Series resultTeam Sexy 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1