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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 24 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 22 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 16 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 14 games
36%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 12 games
58%

Polaris Esports

Marci
Marcisignature
Jing · 17 games
65%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 15 games
73%
Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 13 games
77%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 13 games
77%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 10 games
50%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bok · 10 games
80%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
734 picks · 463 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
526 picks · 572 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
525 picks · 452 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
523 picks · 380 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
407 picks · 575 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
380 picks · 253 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
368 picks · 599 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 730 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 68%
Hero pool strength54% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total58% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:15
Execration 46%Polaris Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciPalos
50% · 330 games51% · 186 games
Monkey KingAkashi
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
57% · 144 games47% · 140 games
LeshracMac
Leshrac
Visage
VisageTino-
57% · 143 games50% · 194 games
BeastmasterBok
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressShanks
53% · 209 games48% · 202 games
RubickBoomy
Rubick
34% · 104 games
Lichcml
Lich
Game 2prediction missed45:20
Execration 49%Polaris Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 41:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectrePalos
46% · 47 games46% · 158 games
TerrorbladeAkashi
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
48% · 331 game51% · 175 games
BeastmasterBok
Beastmaster
Visage
VisageTino-
56% · 132 games53% · 113 games
PudgeMac
Pudge
Marci
MarciShanks
52% · 293 games47% · 252 games
RubickBoomy
Rubick
47% · 105 games
Silencercml
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 58%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2