Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionNnuoyanwin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
defloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nuoyan
No games played over 6 months.
def
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
734 picks · 463 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 572 bans
Tusk
525 picks · 451 bans
Tiny
523 picks · 380 bans
Nature's Prophet
407 picks · 573 bans
Snapfire
380 picks · 250 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 599 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 728 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% nuoyan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% nuoyan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:25
nuoyan 54%def 46%
The model gave 54% on nuoyan — the game was taken by nuoyan in 30:46.
Game 2prediction missed16:38
nuoyan 54%def 46%
The model gave 54% on nuoyan — the game was taken by def in 41:40.
Game 3prediction correct22:41
nuoyan 54%def 46%
The model gave 54% on nuoyan — the game was taken by nuoyan in 45:23.
Model check result
Model favoritenuoyan · 54%
Series resultnuoyan 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3