Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
爷们要战斗loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bright
No games played over 6 months.
爷们要战斗
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
734 picks · 463 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 570 bans
Tusk
525 picks · 450 bans
Tiny
523 picks · 380 bans
Nature's Prophet
407 picks · 570 bans
Snapfire
380 picks · 250 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 597 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 727 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
Team Bright 57%爷们要战斗 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 30:05.
Game 2prediction correct38:24
Team Bright 57%爷们要战斗 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 50:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 57%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2