Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Holy Grailwin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
superior super rareloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Holy Grail
No games played over 6 months.
superior super rare
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
734 picks · 463 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 570 bans
Tusk
525 picks · 450 bans
Tiny
523 picks · 380 bans
Nature's Prophet
407 picks · 570 bans
Snapfire
380 picks · 250 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 597 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 727 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Holy Grail
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% superior super rare
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:15
Holy Grail 34%superior super rare 66%
The model gave 66% on superior super rare — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 36:00.
Game 2prediction missed18:6
Holy Grail 34%superior super rare 66%
The model gave 66% on superior super rare — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 21:12.
Model check result
Model favoritesuperior super rare · 66%
Series resultHoly Grail 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2