Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionNnuoyanwin 1:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
SSpinachloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nuoyan
No games played over 6 months.
Spinach
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
732 picks · 463 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 450 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 379 bans
Nature's Prophet
407 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 250 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 594 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 727 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% nuoyan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Spinach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
nuoyan 49%Spinach 51%
The model gave 51% on Spinach — the game was taken by nuoyan.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpinach · 51%
Series resultnuoyan 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1