Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
iG Vitalitywin 1:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Supernovaloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 4 games
Clockwerk
Sj · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
Summer · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Winter Wyvern
Sj · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Summer · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 4 games
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
Mirana
sheep · 2 games
Rubick
sheep · 2 games
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
Earth Spirit
sheep · 1 game
Snapfire
sheep · 1 game
Tusk
sheep · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
732 picks · 463 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 450 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 379 bans
Nature's Prophet
407 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 250 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 594 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 727 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% iG Vitality
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
iG Vitality 44%Supernova 56%
The model gave 56% on Supernova — the game was taken by iG Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 56%
Series resultiG Vitality 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1