Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 10 games
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 10 games
Magnus
MidOne · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 9 games
Queen of Painsignature
Moon · 7 games
Rubick
AhFu · 7 games
Marci
MidOne · 6 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
730 picks · 463 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 449 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 379 bans
Nature's Prophet
406 picks · 568 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 250 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 594 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 728 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:50
Team SMG 51%Blacklist International 49%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 57:44.
Game 2prediction correct35:15
Team SMG 51%Blacklist International 49%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 51%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2