Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkwin 1:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Block Roar Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Silk
Doomoften banned
payk · 2 games
Linaoften banned
payk · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
payk · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
payk · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
payk · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
payk · 1 game
Block Roar Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
NaoG · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
727 picks · 465 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 452 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 383 bans
Nature's Prophet
406 picks · 571 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 249 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 595 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 733 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Block Roar Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Silk 49%Block Roar Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Silk.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlock Roar Esports · 51%
Series resultSilk 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1