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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qhaliloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 13 games
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 12 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 10 games
30%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ILICH- · 9 games
78%

Qhali

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
MonHty · 6 games
67%
Lina
Linasignature
Cucahook · 6 games
67%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Hermit · 6 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Luis · 5 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 4 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
726 picks · 465 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
523 picks · 567 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 452 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
522 picks · 383 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
406 picks · 571 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
379 picks · 249 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
368 picks · 594 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 733 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Qhali
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Thunder Awaken 58%Qhali 42%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 31:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
47% · 102 games53% · 35 games
Troll WarlordCucahook
Troll Warlord
Doom
DoomILICH-
51% · 71 game50% · 118 games
Dragon KnightRobo-Z
Dragon Knight
Techies
TechiesMichael
49% · 29 games57% · 72 games
BroodmotherHermit
Broodmother
Tusk
TuskMjz
43% · 155 games52% · 132 games
SilencerLuis
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct33:14
Thunder Awaken 54%Qhali 46%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperSmiling Knight
53% · 107 games52% · 139 games
Monkey KingCucahook
Monkey King
Doom
DoomILICH-
40% · 153 games59% · 150 games
LeshracRobo-Z
Leshrac
Phoenix
PhoenixMjz
45% · 145 games55% · 201 game
BeastmasterHermit
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickMichael
45% · 370 games52% · 285 games
Treant ProtectorLuis
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 68%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2