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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Block Roar Esportswin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Cubil Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Block Roar Esports

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
100%

Cubil Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
728 picks · 464 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
523 picks · 385 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
523 picks · 565 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 453 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
405 picks · 568 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
379 picks · 247 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
368 picks · 592 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 729 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength62% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Block Roar Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:14
Block Roar Esports 56%Cubil Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 24:51.
Game 2prediction missed18:39
Block Roar Esports 56%Cubil Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Cubil Gaming in 34:51.
Game 3prediction correct42:7
Block Roar Esports 56%Cubil Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 31:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlock Roar Esports · 56%
Series resultBlock Roar Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3