Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Starsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Keyd Stars
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 16 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 8 games
Techiessignature
FCR · 8 games
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 7 games
Spirit Breaker
Kingrd · 7 games
Medusasignature
hFn · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
728 picks · 464 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 566 bans
Tusk
522 picks · 457 bans
Tiny
521 picks · 386 bans
Nature's Prophet
403 picks · 570 bans
Snapfire
378 picks · 246 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 591 bans
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 730 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:22
beastcoast 81%Keyd Stars 19%
The model gave 81% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 37:44.
Game 2prediction missed38:21
beastcoast 81%Keyd Stars 19%
The model gave 81% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 27:31.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 81%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2