Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GodGenesisloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Silk
Doomoften banned
payk · 2 games
Linaoften banned
payk · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
payk · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
payk · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
payk · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
payk · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
payk · 1 game
Sven
payk · 1 game
GodGenesis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
728 picks · 460 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 459 bans
Tiny
521 picks · 386 bans
Treant Protector
521 picks · 562 bans
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
378 picks · 242 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 587 bans
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 729 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% GodGenesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:35
Silk 55%GodGenesis 45%
The model gave 55% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 38:48.
Game 2prediction correct16:41
Silk 55%GodGenesis 45%
The model gave 55% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 38:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 55%
Series resultSilk 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2