Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 15 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 14 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 14 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 9 games
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
One Move
Mirana
Panto · 15 games
Rubick
Gilgir · 15 games
Tiny
Gilgir · 15 games
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panto · 11 games
Snapfire
xsvampire · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
727 picks · 461 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 465 bans
Treant Protector
520 picks · 561 bans
Tiny
519 picks · 385 bans
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 571 bans
Snapfire
376 picks · 244 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 588 bans
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 729 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 50%
Hero pool strength64% Hydra
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total61% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:41
Hydra 57%One Move 43%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by One Move in 59:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendKami
Naga SirenMunkushi~
DoomCloud
Ember SpiritAinkrad
BatriderWorick
Dark SeerAfterLife
IoLefitan
TinyGilgir
ClockwerkHappyDyurara
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Game 2prediction correct26:18
Hydra 57%One Move 43%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkKami
UrsaMunkushi~
PuckWorick
PangolierAinkrad
BeastmasterCloud
BroodmotherAfterLife
SnapfireLefitan
EnchantressPanto
Crystal MaidenHappyDyurara
RubickGilgir
Game 3prediction missed15:43
Hydra 59%One Move 41%
The model gave 59% on Hydra — the game was taken by One Move in 40:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperKami
SpectreMunkushi~
SnapfireCloud
Ember SpiritAinkrad
BatriderWorick
TimbersawAfterLife
ClockwerkLefitan
EnchantressPanto
Treant ProtectorHappyDyurara
TinyGilgir
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 61%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3