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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Darksideloss 1:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Darkside

No games played over 6 months.

Natus Vincere

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
swedenstrong · 10 games
60%
Silencer
Silencer
Solo · 10 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
V-Tune · 9 games
78%
Visage
Visageoften banned
laise · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 7 games
14%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 7 games
43%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
laise · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
727 picks · 461 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 471 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
520 picks · 562 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 386 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 571 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 244 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
369 picks · 588 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 735 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 27%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:8
Darkside 27%Natus Vincere 73%
The model gave 73% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:40.
Game 2prediction correct30:21
Darkside 27%Natus Vincere 73%
The model gave 73% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 50:40.
Game 3prediction correct19:35
Darkside 27%Natus Vincere 73%
The model gave 73% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 73%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3