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The Lima Major 2023 · BO5
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 3:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Team Liquidloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 21 game
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 18 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 16 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 14 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 14 games
79%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 13 games
46%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 12 games
75%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 27 games
78%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 19 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
miCKe · 16 games
75%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 16 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
739 picks · 468 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
574 picks · 510 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
554 picks · 417 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
545 picks · 582 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 575 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
397 picks · 250 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
381 picks · 602 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
360 picks · 344 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 78%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:18
Gaimin Gladiators 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 45:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linadyrachyo
57% · 250 games52% · 339 games
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
TimbersawQuinn
49% · 138 games49% · 517 games
TuskNisha
Tusk
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAce
47% · 172 games45% · 88 games
Magnuszai
Magnus
Rubick
RubicktOfu
48% · 393 games45% · 313 games
HoodwinkiNSaNiA
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSeleri
58% · 304 games
Game 2prediction missed27:6
Gaimin Gladiators 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 21:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linadyrachyo
55% · 226 games48% · 123 games
SnipermiCKe
Sniper
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
52% · 347 games41% · 187 games
KunkkaNisha
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
51% · 280 games53% · 255 games
Batriderzai
Batrider
Rubick
RubickSeleri
49% · 378 games51% · 754 games
TinyiNSaNiA
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemontOfu
53% · 88 games
Game 3prediction missed31:19
Gaimin Gladiators 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linadyrachyo
49% · 291 game51% · 563 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Tusk
TuskQuinn
49% · 458 games53% · 28 games
Ancient ApparitionNisha
Ancient Apparition
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorAce
39% · 34 games51% · 102 games
Earthshakerzai
Earthshaker
Undying
UndyingtOfu
51% · 243 games54% · 430 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Io
IoSeleri
47% · 97 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3