?
arrow_backBack to match
The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 27 games
78%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 19 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
76%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 16 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 16 games
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
miCKe · 15 games
73%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 27 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 19 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 16 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 15 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 15 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 15 games
87%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
737 picks · 468 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
573 picks · 511 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 415 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
545 picks · 581 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
406 picks · 575 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
396 picks · 251 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
381 picks · 600 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
361 picks · 344 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
Team Liquid 57%Talon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
48% · 207 games60% · 71 game
Spectre23savage
Spectre
Lycan
Lycanzai
45% · 88 games52% · 79 games
Night StalkerJabz
Night Stalker
Puck
PuckNisha
52% · 196 games54% · 350 games
TuskMikoto
Tusk
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
48% · 358 games43% · 310 games
SnapfireQ
Snapfire
50% · 39 games
WarlockOli
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct32:25
Team Liquid 58%Talon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 52:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
52% · 197 games46% · 152 games
Terrorblade23savage
Terrorblade
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetzai
51% · 304 games52% · 139 games
Templar AssassinMikoto
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
48% · 369 games53% · 201 game
Primal BeastJabz
Primal Beast
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
50% · 202 games46% · 358 games
RubickQ
Rubick
50% · 222 games
Treant ProtectorOli
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 64%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2