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The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 26 games
62%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 19 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 18 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 15 games
87%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 14 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 14 games
71%

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 16 games
81%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 15 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 15 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Cr1t- · 14 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
58%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 12 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 11 games
82%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
740 picks · 469 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
579 picks · 516 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 423 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
548 picks · 579 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
406 picks · 576 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
399 picks · 250 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
384 picks · 599 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
365 picks · 345 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:9
Talon Esports 49%Shopify Rebellion 51%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJabz
56% · 315 games43% · 340 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Lina
Lina23savage
53% · 293 games46% · 139 games
Chaos KnightArteezy
Chaos Knight
Puck
PuckMikoto
55% · 364 games40% · 317 games
SnapfireSabeRLight-
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskQ
51% · 560 games48% · 684 games
TinyCr1t-
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockOli
58% · 111 games50% · 163 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct19:43
Talon Esports 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 48:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Lina23savage
54% · 255 games53% · 137 games
BloodseekerArteezy
Bloodseeker
Kunkka
KunkkaMikoto
47% · 115 games50% · 263 games
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
Nature's Prophet
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJabz
51% · 204 games49% · 219 games
ZeusAbed
Zeus
Tiny
TinyQ
47% · 564 games49% · 464 games
RubickFly
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder TitanOli
55% · 20 games49% · 75 games
Earth SpiritCr1t-
Earth Spirit
Game 3prediction missed51:13
Talon Esports 43%Shopify Rebellion 57%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectre23savage
56% · 68 games48% · 297 games
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
55% · 97 games47% · 70 games
LunaArteezy
Luna
Primal Beast
Primal BeastJabz
52% · 188 games52% · 242 games
LeshracAbed
Leshrac
Tiny
TinyQ
46% · 567 games44% · 102 games
EarthshakerCr1t-
Earthshaker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorOli
55% · 301 game45% · 510 games
RubickFly
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 58%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3