?
arrow_backBack to match
The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 20 games
65%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 18 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 14 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 14 games
79%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 13 games
46%
Lina
Linasignature
dyrachyo · 12 games
83%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 27 games
78%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 18 games
83%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 16 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 16 games
81%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
81%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
739 picks · 469 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
579 picks · 516 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 423 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
547 picks · 578 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
406 picks · 574 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
398 picks · 250 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
384 picks · 597 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
365 picks · 345 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 81%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total59% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:19
Gaimin Gladiators 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 39:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
54% · 171 game48% · 124 games
MorphlingmiCKe
Morphling
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
56% · 103 games48% · 119 games
ZeusNisha
Zeus
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
47% · 42 games48% · 232 games
Pangolierzai
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerktOfu
46% · 256 games49% · 202 games
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
Treant Protector
Io
IoSeleri
55% · 105 games
Game 2prediction missed43:13
Gaimin Gladiators 43%Team Liquid 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursadyrachyo
45% · 88 games53% · 297 games
LinamiCKe
Lina
Batrider
BatriderQuinn
52% · 172 games52% · 151 game
SlarkNisha
Slark
Broodmother
BroodmotherAce
52% · 104 games58% · 237 games
Enigmazai
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
40% · 251 game51% · 323 games
UndyingiNSaNiA
Undying
Rubick
RubicktOfu
44% · 393 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 59%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2