The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Tusksignature
Q · 26 games
Rubicksignature
Q · 19 games
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 18 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 14 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 14 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
739 picks · 469 bans
Tusk
577 picks · 518 bans
Tiny
563 picks · 425 bans
Treant Protector
545 picks · 578 bans
Nature's Prophet
406 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
398 picks · 250 bans
Death Prophet
383 picks · 596 bans
Mirana
365 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total59% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:15
Entity 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Entity — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 35:09.
Game 2prediction missed30:11
Entity 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Entity — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 59%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2