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The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 16 games
81%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 15 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 15 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Cr1t- · 14 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 11 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 11 games
73%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 10 games
70%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 12 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 11 games
73%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Panda · 11 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 10 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Oscar · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
742 picks · 470 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
587 picks · 527 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 437 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
545 picks · 582 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
403 picks · 572 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
397 picks · 250 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
386 picks · 598 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
375 picks · 350 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:31
Shopify Rebellion 48%Evil Geniuses 52%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 32:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetArteezy
55% · 256 games47% · 103 games
Chaos KnightPakazs
Chaos Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAbed
43% · 133 games54% · 90 games
BroodmotherWisper
Broodmother
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
46% · 93 games45% · 300 games
Death ProphetChris Luck
Death Prophet
Disruptor
DisruptorCr1t-
60% · 164 games48% · 230 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
52% · 318 games48% · 241 game
ClockwerkPanda
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed35:13
Shopify Rebellion 46%Evil Geniuses 54%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 39:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaArteezy
49% · 68 games54% · 220 games
Nature's ProphetPakazs
Nature's Prophet
Snapfire
SnapfireSabeRLight-
47% · 323 games43% · 173 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
57% · 140 games50% · 371 game
Death ProphetChris Luck
Death Prophet
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionFly
59% · 38 games48% · 384 games
ClockwerkPanda
Clockwerk
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
51% · 599 games46% · 20 games
OracleMatthew
Oracle
Game 3prediction missed33:27
Shopify Rebellion 49%Evil Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 44:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaArteezy
58% · 79 games47% · 194 games
Nature's ProphetPakazs
Nature's Prophet
Zeus
ZeusAbed
54% · 158 games42% · 153 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Visage
VisageSabeRLight-
69% · 134 games36% · 129 games
Void SpiritChris Luck
Void Spirit
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
51% · 688 games41% · 375 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerFly
51% · 150 games47% · 358 games
ClockwerkPanda
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 56%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3