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The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 25 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 19 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 18 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 14 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 14 games
79%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 14 games
86%
Marci
Marci
Q · 12 games
50%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 32 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 17 games
82%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mira · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 15 games
93%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
742 picks · 467 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
586 picks · 525 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 437 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
543 picks · 581 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
400 picks · 572 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
397 picks · 248 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
386 picks · 597 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
374 picks · 350 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:37
Talon Esports 38%Team Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend23savage
46% · 143 games52% · 64 games
SpectreYatoro
Spectre
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJabz
49% · 247 games55% · 115 games
ZeusLarl
Zeus
Batrider
BatriderMikoto
52% · 218 games48% · 161 game
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Earthshaker
EarthshakerQ
49% · 111 games49% · 481 game
TinyMira
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorOli
53% · 239 games46% · 137 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed30:10
Talon Esports 38%Team Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJabz
51% · 258 games47% · 313 games
LinaYatoro
Lina
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
53% · 281 game53% · 322 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Slark
Slark23savage
58% · 114 games40% · 451 game
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyQ
53% · 719 games42% · 354 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorOli
56% · 311 games48% · 243 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed38:33
Talon Esports 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 55:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Void23savage
50% · 187 games48% · 218 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJabz
52% · 262 games51% · 707 games
TinyLarl
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
46% · 421 game60% · 94 games
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Tusk
TuskQ
47% · 476 games46% · 175 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Silencer
SilencerOli
45% · 174 games55% · 326 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3