The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tusksignature
Q · 25 games
Rubicksignature
Q · 19 games
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 14 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 14 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 13 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
Marci
Q · 12 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
742 picks · 468 bans
Tusk
599 picks · 530 bans
Tiny
568 picks · 446 bans
Treant Protector
537 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
399 picks · 570 bans
Snapfire
398 picks · 248 bans
Death Prophet
384 picks · 594 bans
Mirana
382 picks · 353 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct56:19
Talon Esports 55%HellRaisers 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 43:21.
Game 2prediction correct44:16
Talon Esports 55%HellRaisers 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 43:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 55%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2