The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 12 games
Rubick
Matthew · 12 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 12 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 11 games
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
Oscar · 8 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
743 picks · 470 bans
Tusk
608 picks · 536 bans
Tiny
572 picks · 451 bans
Treant Protector
539 picks · 582 bans
Snapfire
399 picks · 246 bans
Nature's Prophet
395 picks · 573 bans
Mirana
384 picks · 364 bans
Death Prophet
382 picks · 596 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total61% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:13
Evil Geniuses 61%beastcoast 39%
The model gave 61% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 29:58.
Game 2prediction correct22:16
Evil Geniuses 61%beastcoast 39%
The model gave 61% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 33:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 61%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2