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The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tiny
BoBoKa · 16 games
56%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 10 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fantasy · 10 games
70%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Fantasy · 9 games
78%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 18 games
78%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 17 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 16 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 16 games
63%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 15 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 14 games
86%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
742 picks · 469 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
610 picks · 535 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 451 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
537 picks · 583 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
397 picks · 246 bans
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
394 picks · 571 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
384 picks · 366 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
382 picks · 596 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:5
Team Aster 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMonet
52% · 229 games55% · 95 games
LifestealerSkiter
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXwy
44% · 329 games50% · 250 games
Dragon KnightNine
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireXxs
47% · 377 games53% · 320 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressBoBoKa
45% · 199 games51% · 583 games
RubickSaksa
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFantasy
56% · 316 games49% · 202 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct12:27
Team Aster 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 51:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMonet
37% · 93 games51% · 134 games
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXwy
54% · 108 games52% · 198 games
BatriderNine
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireXxs
42% · 294 games56% · 186 games
Enigma33
Enigma
Silencer
SilencerBoBoKa
44% · 165 games56% · 97 games
RikiSaksa
Riki
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFantasy
53% · 260 games55% · 305 games
UndyingSneyking
Undying
Game 3prediction missed24:29
Team Aster 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Aster in 48:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinXwy
53% · 140 games51% · 105 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMonet
40% · 78 games45% · 233 games
Doom33
Doom
Enigma
EnigmaXxs
55% · 222 games49% · 210 games
ZeusNine
Zeus
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFantasy
55% · 212 games46% · 287 games
Monkey KingSaksa
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
51% · 488 games53% · 305 games
UndyingSneyking
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3