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The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 26 games
77%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 18 games
83%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
76%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 16 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 16 games
81%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 15 games
60%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
80%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
miCKe · 14 games
64%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 24 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 19 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 14 games
86%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 13 games
77%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
77%
Marci
Marci
Q · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
742 picks · 468 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
610 picks · 541 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
575 picks · 452 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
536 picks · 583 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
398 picks · 244 bans
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
395 picks · 570 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
384 picks · 368 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
381 picks · 596 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:12
Team Liquid 69%Talon Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SnipermiCKe
48% · 90 games52% · 136 games
Naga SirenJabz
Naga Siren
Death Prophet
Death Prophetzai
47% · 310 games53% · 324 games
Lina23savage
Lina
Tusk
TuskNisha
48% · 386 games43% · 134 games
Void SpiritMikoto
Void Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
52% · 247 games56% · 369 games
MiranaQ
Mirana
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
43% · 246 games57% · 316 games
UndyingOli
Undying
Game 2prediction correct42:34
Team Liquid 68%Talon Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderNisha
53% · 298 games56% · 156 games
Faceless Void23savage
Faceless Void
Doom
Doomzai
49% · 232 games48% · 357 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Drow Ranger
Drow RangermiCKe
44% · 119 games49% · 410 games
Death ProphetJabz
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickBoxi
48% · 477 games48% · 462 games
TuskQ
Tusk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
56% · 321 game50% · 62 games
OmniknightOli
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 81%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2