The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 12 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 11 games
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 10 games
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Wisper · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
744 picks · 469 bans
Tusk
612 picks · 551 bans
Tiny
581 picks · 457 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 583 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 242 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 376 bans
Nature's Prophet
392 picks · 571 bans
Death Prophet
380 picks · 596 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:6
Entity 46%Evil Geniuses 54%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 42:52.
Game 2prediction correct38:16
Entity 46%Evil Geniuses 54%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 49:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 54%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2