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The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 19 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ace · 16 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 13 games
77%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 12 games
42%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 11 games
73%

Team Aster

Tiny
Tiny
BoBoKa · 16 games
56%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 10 games
60%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Fantasy · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fantasy · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
744 picks · 467 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
610 picks · 551 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
581 picks · 456 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
532 picks · 583 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
401 picks · 242 bans
44%
Mirana
Mirana
392 picks · 376 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
390 picks · 571 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
379 picks · 595 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:9
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Team Aster 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerdyrachyo
51% · 127 games50% · 128 games
MorphlingMonet
Morphling
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAce
51% · 266 games51% · 319 games
Death ProphetXwy
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritQuinn
50% · 151 game56% · 159 games
EnigmaXxs
Enigma
Silencer
SilencertOfu
45% · 193 games50% · 336 games
TuskBoBoKa
Tusk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSeleri
50% · 354 games47% · 149 games
PhoenixFantasy
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct13:13
Gaimin Gladiators 56%Team Aster 44%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linadyrachyo
57% · 250 games42% · 37 games
Troll WarlordMonet
Troll Warlord
Batrider
BatriderQuinn
55% · 222 games47% · 181 game
Nature's ProphetXxs
Nature's Prophet
Underlord
UnderlordAce
50% · 46 games47% · 263 games
TuskXwy
Tusk
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
45% · 129 games45% · 103 games
SilencerBoBoKa
Silencer
Riki
RikitOfu
53% · 122 games55% · 185 games
Treant ProtectorFantasy
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 56%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2