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The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tiny
BoBoKa · 20 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Fantasy · 9 games
78%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ori · 9 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fantasy · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
745 picks · 468 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
616 picks · 560 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
588 picks · 463 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
405 picks · 241 bans
44%
Mirana
Mirana
397 picks · 386 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
389 picks · 570 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
380 picks · 593 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:6
beastcoast 50%Team Aster 50%
The model gave 50% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:12.
Game 2prediction missed8:31
beastcoast 50%Team Aster 50%
The model gave 50% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Team Aster in 24:19.
Game 3prediction missed27:11
beastcoast 50%Team Aster 50%
The model gave 50% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:13.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 50%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3