The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Geek Famloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Geek Fam
Rubick
NARMAN · 19 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 15 games
Marcisignature
NARMAN · 13 games
Snapfire
NARMAN · 13 games
Tusksignature
NARMAN · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Force · 9 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
NARMAN · 9 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
745 picks · 468 bans
Tusk
616 picks · 560 bans
Tiny
588 picks · 463 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
Snapfire
405 picks · 241 bans
Mirana
397 picks · 386 bans
Nature's Prophet
389 picks · 570 bans
Death Prophet
380 picks · 593 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:21
HellRaisers 58%Geek Fam 42%
The model gave 58% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 39:44.
Game 2prediction missed23:33
HellRaisers 58%Geek Fam 42%
The model gave 58% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 39:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 58%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2