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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 25 games
76%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 17 games
82%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 16 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 16 games
81%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 15 games
60%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
80%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
miCKe · 14 games
64%

Team Aster

Tiny
Tiny
BoBoKa · 19 games
53%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Fantasy · 9 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fantasy · 8 games
38%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
745 picks · 467 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
614 picks · 559 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
584 picks · 462 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 580 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
404 picks · 239 bans
44%
Mirana
Mirana
395 picks · 386 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
387 picks · 566 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
380 picks · 591 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total76% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:26
Team Liquid 64%Team Aster 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:00:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
50% · 58 games57% · 255 games
LinaMonet
Lina
Snapfire
Snapfirezai
42% · 260 games45% · 178 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
47% · 204 games52% · 269 games
PuckXwy
Puck
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
54% · 227 games47% · 212 games
PhoenixBoBoKa
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskBoxi
49% · 291 game57% · 126 games
RikiFantasy
Riki
Game 2prediction correct27:26
Team Liquid 65%Team Aster 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenNisha
46% · 22 games52% · 165 games
LinaMonet
Lina
Enigma
Enigmazai
55% · 292 games46% · 176 games
BeastmasterXxs
Beastmaster
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritmiCKe
51% · 43 games45% · 339 games
TinyXwy
Tiny
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBoxi
50% · 197 games52% · 71 game
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
Keeper of the Light
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
53% · 331 game45% · 134 games
SilencerFantasy
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 76%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2