The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 28 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 20 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 17 games
Clockwerk
Mira · 16 games
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 15 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
Execration
Visagesignature
Tino- · 23 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Tino- · 14 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 14 games
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 13 games
Tiny
Shanks · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
741 picks · 465 bans
Tusk
613 picks · 555 bans
Tiny
579 picks · 462 bans
Treant Protector
523 picks · 578 bans
Snapfire
403 picks · 237 bans
Mirana
393 picks · 385 bans
Nature's Prophet
382 picks · 563 bans
Death Prophet
378 picks · 585 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:21
Team Spirit 70%Execration 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaYatoro
Nature's ProphetPalos
Spirit BreakerCollapse
PuckBob
TinyLarl
Keeper of the LightTino-
RubickMira
RikiShanks
SvenMiposhka
Game 2prediction correct48:11
Team Spirit 70%Execration 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaYatoro
Nature's ProphetPalos
Ember SpiritLarl
LeshracBob
Primal BeastCollapse
VisageTino-
EnchantressMiposhka
Spirit BreakerShanks
RikiMira
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 84%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2