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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 14 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 9 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 8 games
75%

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 9 games
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 9 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 8 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
25%
Marci
Marcisignature
Timado · 8 games
63%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Ari · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
741 picks · 465 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
613 picks · 555 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
579 picks · 462 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
523 picks · 578 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
403 picks · 237 bans
44%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 385 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
382 picks · 563 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
378 picks · 585 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:8
Evil Geniuses 61%TSM 39%
The model gave 61% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 29:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPakazs
52% · 172 games52% · 167 games
Nature's Prophetkasane
Nature's Prophet
Batrider
BatriderChris Luck
50% · 294 games46% · 166 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWisper
53% · 189 games44% · 125 games
Queen of Painbryle-
Queen of Pain
Riki
RikiMatthew
50% · 81 game51% · 463 games
TinyAri
Tiny
Undying
UndyingPanda
54% · 241 game43% · 56 games
AbaddonWhitemon
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct28:19
Evil Geniuses 61%TSM 39%
The model gave 61% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPakazs
45% · 139 games55% · 203 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracChris Luck
60% · 273 games48% · 316 games
Pangolierbryle-
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
54% · 278 games45% · 370 games
Death Prophetkasane
Death Prophet
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
48% · 163 games49% · 120 games
RikiAri
Riki
Rubick
RubickMatthew
46% · 499 games51% · 343 games
MiranaWhitemon
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 68%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2