The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
Phoenixsignature
y` · 10 games
Tusk
NothingToSay · 10 games
Disruptorsignature
y` · 9 games
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
XinQ · 7 games
Undyingoften banned
y` · 7 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubick
tOfu · 17 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ace · 16 games
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 14 games
Hoodwink
tOfu · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 12 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 11 games
Linasignature
dyrachyo · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
741 picks · 465 bans
Tusk
613 picks · 555 bans
Tiny
579 picks · 462 bans
Treant Protector
523 picks · 578 bans
Snapfire
403 picks · 237 bans
Mirana
393 picks · 385 bans
Nature's Prophet
382 picks · 563 bans
Death Prophet
378 picks · 585 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:23
LGD Gaming 51%Gaimin Gladiators 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckNothingToSay
Sniperdyrachyo
Phantom Assassinshiro
PangolierQuinn
BeastmasterELeVeN
Death ProphetAce
Shadow DemonpLAnet
RubicktOfu
Undyingy`
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Game 2prediction correct9:23
LGD Gaming 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 27:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mageshiro
LeshracQuinn
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Morphlingdyrachyo
MarsELeVeN
BeastmasterAce
PhoenixpLAnet
RubicktOfu
Ioy`
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 53%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2