The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Rubick
NARMAN · 19 games
Marcisignature
Hishge · 13 games
Snapfire
NARMAN · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 13 games
Tusk
NARMAN · 12 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
Batridersignature
Force · 8 games
Disruptor
Roddgeee · 8 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
741 picks · 466 bans
Tusk
614 picks · 554 bans
Tiny
578 picks · 463 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 575 bans
Snapfire
403 picks · 235 bans
Mirana
395 picks · 388 bans
Nature's Prophet
380 picks · 562 bans
Death Prophet
377 picks · 584 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:26
Geek Fam 31%beastcoast 69%
The model gave 69% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 36:23.
Game 2prediction correct29:33
Geek Fam 31%beastcoast 69%
The model gave 69% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 39:42.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 69%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2