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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
25%
Marci
Marcisignature
Timado · 8 games
63%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 8 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 8 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 7 games
29%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Whitemon · 7 games
71%

Gaimin Gladiators

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ace · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 16 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 13 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 12 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 12 games
58%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 11 games
73%
Lina
Linasignature
dyrachyo · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
733 picks · 464 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
611 picks · 554 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
574 picks · 458 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
516 picks · 574 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
398 picks · 233 bans
45%
Mirana
Mirana
394 picks · 388 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
377 picks · 554 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
372 picks · 581 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:33
TSM 49%Gaimin Gladiators 51%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierbryle-
50% · 497 games48% · 217 games
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Monkey King
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerTimado
43% · 142 games52% · 385 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Enigma
Enigmakasane
57% · 307 games46% · 363 games
Death ProphetAce
Death Prophet
Snapfire
SnapfireAri
46% · 454 games49% · 480 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Undying
UndyingWhitemon
56% · 335 games53% · 290 games
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed27:9
TSM 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by TSM in 37:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTimado
52% · 122 games44% · 94 games
Drow Rangerdyrachyo
Drow Ranger
Lycan
Lycankasane
45% · 98 games56% · 58 games
Dark SeerAce
Dark Seer
Death Prophet
Death Prophetbryle-
47% · 312 games59% · 221 game
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Rubick
RubickAri
47% · 389 games51% · 272 games
ClockwerktOfu
Clockwerk
Io
IoWhitemon
46% · 51 game54% · 327 games
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2