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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2
series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 23 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Night · 19 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 18 games
28%
Rubick
Rubick
CatYou · 16 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
mks- · 13 games
38%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 11 games
36%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Night · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Lwwnb · 9 games
56%

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 10 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
NothingToSay · 9 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
XinQ · 7 games
57%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
y` · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
733 picks · 464 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
611 picks · 554 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
574 picks · 458 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
516 picks · 574 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
398 picks · 233 bans
45%
Mirana
Mirana
394 picks · 388 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
377 picks · 554 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
372 picks · 581 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total90% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:28
EHOME 24%LGD Gaming 76%
The model gave 76% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangermks-
43% · 111 games40% · 54 games
Phantom Lancershiro
Phantom Lancer
Beastmaster
Beastmasterxiaoyu154
57% · 278 games49% · 326 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNight
53% · 432 games47% · 324 games
Death ProphetELeVeN
Death Prophet
Techies
TechiesCatYou
45% · 74 games47% · 136 games
Silencery`
Silencer
Undying
UndyingLwwnb
60% · 296 games53% · 351 game
TuskpLAnet
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct7:29
EHOME 24%LGD Gaming 76%
The model gave 76% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 25:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenmks-
56% · 124 games39% · 187 games
Shadow Fiendshiro
Shadow Fiend
Snapfire
SnapfireNight
47% · 278 games55% · 284 games
BroodmotherELeVeN
Broodmother
Tusk
Tuskxiaoyu154
51% · 232 games42% · 134 games
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickCatYou
50% · 243 games54% · 404 games
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLwwnb
52% · 178 games57% · 46 games
LionpLAnet
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 90%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2