DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
chandogsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 10 games
Jakirooften banned
Accel · 6 games
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
chandogs
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Argius · 2 games
Luna
Argius · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Argius · 1 game
Kunkka
mini-` · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
mini-` · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
642 picks · 691 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 455 bans
Tusk
497 picks · 417 bans
Warlock
435 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
427 picks · 419 bans
Shadow Demon
404 picks · 1106 bans
Puck
394 picks · 856 bans
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 46%
Hero pool strength58% Estar Backs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:10
Estar Backs 65%chandogs 35%
The model gave 65% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doompayk
PangolierS1RENM
VenomancerYadomi
Game 2prediction correct30:12
Estar Backs 63%chandogs 37%
The model gave 63% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 35:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaverpayk
Queen of PainS1RENM
ClockwerkYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 70%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2