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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 1:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 23 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Night · 18 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 17 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
CatYou · 16 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
mks- · 13 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Night · 11 games
55%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 10 games
30%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Lwwnb · 9 games
56%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 25 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 19 games
79%
Tiny
Tiny
Mira · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 15 games
87%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
92%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
725 picks · 460 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
604 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 455 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
514 picks · 568 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
395 picks · 230 bans
45%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 386 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
372 picks · 545 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
369 picks · 572 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 70%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:40
EHOME 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancermks-
42% · 95 games55% · 195 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNight
49% · 195 games52% · 614 games
TinyLarl
Tiny
Death Prophet
Death Prophetxiaoyu154
46% · 533 games59% · 249 games
BatriderCollapse
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressLwwnb
44% · 290 games49% · 395 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Tusk
TuskCatYou
48% · 609 games57% · 269 games
UndyingMiposhka
Undying
Game 2prediction missed53:38
EHOME 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by EHOME in 1:09:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingmks-
45% · 186 games50% · 216 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierNight
52% · 302 games52% · 248 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Marci
Marcixiaoyu154
44% · 267 games44% · 78 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCatYou
54% · 124 games53% · 242 games
UndyingMiposhka
Undying
Bane
BaneLwwnb
57% · 219 games48% · 314 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 71%
Accuracy by game1 of 2