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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 14 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 9 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 7 games
57%

Gaimin Gladiators

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 15 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 15 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 13 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 12 games
42%
Lina
Linasignature
dyrachyo · 11 games
82%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 11 games
64%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
725 picks · 460 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
604 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 455 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
514 picks · 568 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
395 picks · 230 bans
45%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 386 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
372 picks · 545 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
369 picks · 572 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:21
Evil Geniuses 51%Gaimin Gladiators 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 50:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidPakazs
57% · 216 games48% · 117 games
Ursadyrachyo
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
49% · 261 game47% · 143 games
EnchantressAce
Enchantress
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChris Luck
50% · 479 games49% · 194 games
BatriderQuinn
Batrider
Oracle
OraclePanda
49% · 50 games50% · 400 games
TinytOfu
Tiny
Riki
RikiMatthew
49% · 146 games50% · 298 games
RubickSeleri
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct36:14
Evil Geniuses 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 34:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPakazs
56% · 176 games50% · 192 games
Nature's ProphetAce
Nature's Prophet
Leshrac
LeshracChris Luck
58% · 183 games47% · 74 games
Troll Warlorddyrachyo
Troll Warlord
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWisper
46% · 212 games50% · 335 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Silencer
SilencerPanda
48% · 143 games50% · 340 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Marci
MarciMatthew
48% · 295 games45% · 68 games
IoSeleri
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 52%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2