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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 18 games
78%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 15 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 15 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 14 games
71%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 14 games
86%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 13 games
69%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 23 games
65%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 18 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 14 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 12 games
83%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 12 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 12 games
92%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
725 picks · 460 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
604 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 455 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
514 picks · 568 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
395 picks · 230 bans
45%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 386 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
372 picks · 545 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
369 picks · 572 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:11
Tundra Esports 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
45% · 140 games50% · 132 games
BatriderMikoto
Batrider
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
45% · 101 game48% · 50 games
Drow Ranger23savage
Drow Ranger
Zeus
ZeusNine
49% · 113 games61% · 99 games
VisageJabz
Visage
Monkey King
Monkey KingSaksa
52% · 144 games50% · 212 games
TuskQ
Tusk
Abaddon
AbaddonSneyking
47% · 44 games55% · 49 games
RikiOli
Riki
Game 2prediction correct36:7
Tundra Esports 58%Talon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
40% · 137 games48% · 144 games
Templar AssassinMikoto
Templar Assassin
Lina
LinaNine
47% · 237 games48% · 65 games
Bristleback23savage
Bristleback
Enigma
Enigma33
50% · 241 game51% · 240 games
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSaksa
57% · 124 games47% · 445 games
RubickQ
Rubick
Undying
UndyingSneyking
61% · 184 games57% · 29 games
Elder TitanOli
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2