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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Antarctic Penguinsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
87%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 13 games
77%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 12 games
75%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 10 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
SabeRLight- · 9 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 9 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 9 games
78%

Antarctic Penguins

Tiny
Tinysignature
Kaka · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubick
FelixCiaoBa · 12 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
AlaCrity · 9 games
89%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
eGo · 9 games
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
xNova · 7 games
71%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Kaka · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
FelixCiaoBa · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
XCJ · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
725 picks · 459 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
606 picks · 552 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 456 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
510 picks · 568 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
396 picks · 228 bans
45%
Mirana
Mirana
395 picks · 386 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
370 picks · 545 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
366 picks · 572 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:36
Shopify Rebellion 60%Antarctic Penguins 40%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Antarctic Penguins in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingArteezy
60% · 131 game49% · 65 games
WeavereGo
Weaver
Leshrac
LeshracAbed
54% · 162 games45% · 213 games
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
Ember Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
50% · 40 games38% · 124 games
HoodwinkFelixCiaoBa
Hoodwink
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCr1t-
58% · 47 games44% · 176 games
Treant ProtectorXCJ
Treant Protector
Undying
UndyingFly
56% · 198 games
Game 2prediction correct25:12
Shopify Rebellion 59%Antarctic Penguins 41%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 25:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArteezy
51% · 136 games46% · 208 games
Nature's PropheteGo
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSabeRLight-
50% · 287 games49% · 307 games
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckAbed
55% · 177 games53% · 249 games
Treant ProtectorFelixCiaoBa
Treant Protector
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCr1t-
50% · 63 games43% · 113 games
SilencerXCJ
Silencer
Undying
UndyingFly
56% · 214 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2