The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tiny
BoBoKa · 18 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 9 games
Miranasignature
Fantasy · 9 games
Puckoften banned
Ori · 9 games
Crystal Maiden
Fantasy · 8 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
725 picks · 459 bans
Tusk
605 picks · 552 bans
Tiny
569 picks · 455 bans
Treant Protector
510 picks · 568 bans
Mirana
395 picks · 386 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 228 bans
Nature's Prophet
369 picks · 544 bans
Death Prophet
366 picks · 572 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:32
Team Aster 70%HellRaisers 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Aster — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 44:30.
Game 2prediction missed16:36
Team Aster 70%HellRaisers 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Aster — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 36:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 70%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2