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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 14 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 7 games
57%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 18 games
78%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 15 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 15 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 14 games
71%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 14 games
86%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
721 picks · 457 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
605 picks · 549 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 454 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
508 picks · 567 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 386 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
393 picks · 228 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
369 picks · 539 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 570 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed55:34
Evil Geniuses 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 1:03:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPakazs
48% · 145 games55% · 138 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
58% · 143 games58% · 210 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderChris Luck
45% · 224 games46% · 238 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Riki
RikiMatthew
51% · 82 games43% · 61 game
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanda
48% · 265 games48% · 212 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed30:10
Evil Geniuses 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPakazs
52% · 62 games41% · 22 games
Anti-MageSkiter
Anti-Mage
Leshrac
LeshracChris Luck
61% · 141 game46% · 27 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
51% · 110 games50% · 154 games
BatriderNine
Batrider
Abaddon
AbaddonPanda
56% · 70 games44% · 43 games
EarthshakerSaksa
Earthshaker
Riki
RikiMatthew
50% · 58 games45% · 195 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2