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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
y` · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
XinQ · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
NothingToSay · 7 games
43%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 15 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Hyde · 15 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 12 games
83%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 12 games
92%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
720 picks · 456 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
603 picks · 549 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 454 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
508 picks · 567 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 386 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
393 picks · 228 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
368 picks · 538 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
364 picks · 569 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:35
LGD Gaming 48%Talon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 26:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistshiro
48% · 72 games53% · 173 games
Nature's ProphetJabz
Nature's Prophet
Doom
DoomELeVeN
48% · 199 games49% · 74 games
Wraith King23savage
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
48% · 302 games54% · 220 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Phoenix
PhoenixpLAnet
49% · 126 games52% · 288 games
TuskQ
Tusk
Silencer
Silencery`
46% · 99 games50% · 43 games
OmniknightOli
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct28:15
LGD Gaming 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealershiro
60% · 76 games50% · 128 games
Bloodseeker23savage
Bloodseeker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
47% · 303 games50% · 51 game
SlardarJabz
Slardar
Death Prophet
Death ProphetELeVeN
52% · 356 games41% · 247 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Tusk
TuskpLAnet
48% · 315 games47% · 504 games
RubickQ
Rubick
Disruptor
Disruptory`
61% · 157 games46% · 277 games
UndyingOli
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Accuracy by game2 of 2