The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionAPAntarctic Penguinsloss 0:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Antarctic Penguins
Tinysignature
Kaka · 13 games
Rubick
FelixCiaoBa · 12 games
Pucksignature
AlaCrity · 9 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
eGo · 9 games
Lichsignature
xNova · 7 games
Marcioften banned
Kaka · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
XCJ · 6 games
Disruptor
xNova · 6 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
718 picks · 451 bans
Tusk
601 picks · 549 bans
Tiny
565 picks · 451 bans
Treant Protector
507 picks · 561 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 386 bans
Snapfire
392 picks · 224 bans
Nature's Prophet
367 picks · 534 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 566 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Antarctic Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:30
Antarctic Penguins 18%beastcoast 82%
The model gave 82% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 22:58.
Game 2prediction correct22:31
Antarctic Penguins 18%beastcoast 82%
The model gave 82% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 34:07.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 82%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2