The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Geek Famloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 13 games
Undyingsignature
Fly · 12 games
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 10 games
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 9 games
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 9 games
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 9 games
Svensignature
Fly · 9 games
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 17 games
Snapfire
NARMAN · 13 games
Tusk
NARMAN · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 12 games
Marcisignature
Hishge · 10 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 8 games
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
718 picks · 451 bans
Tusk
601 picks · 549 bans
Tiny
565 picks · 451 bans
Treant Protector
507 picks · 561 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 386 bans
Snapfire
392 picks · 224 bans
Nature's Prophet
367 picks · 534 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 566 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:33
Shopify Rebellion 57%Geek Fam 43%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 59:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaArteezy
Nature's ProphetSkem
Ember SpiritAbed
DoomForce
EnigmaSabeRLight-
ZeusRoddgeee
PhoenixFly
MarciNARMAN
Spirit BreakerCr1t-
Game 2prediction correct21:5
Shopify Rebellion 56%Geek Fam 44%
The model gave 56% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracAbed
SniperSkem
Troll WarlordArteezy
PhoenixForce
EnigmaSabeRLight-
RubickNARMAN
SnapfireFly
MarciRoddgeee
Earth SpiritCr1t-
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2