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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 21 game
71%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 14 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 11 games
27%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 11 games
73%

TSM

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
25%
Marci
Marcisignature
Timado · 8 games
63%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 8 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 7 games
57%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Whitemon · 7 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
MoonMeander · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 448 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
595 picks · 549 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 448 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
506 picks · 561 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
391 picks · 224 bans
44%
Mirana
Mirana
390 picks · 385 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
363 picks · 529 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 560 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:35
Execration 51%TSM 49%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by TSM in 34:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPalos
54% · 84 games60% · 43 games
Naga SirenTimado
Naga Siren
Visage
VisageTino-
50% · 162 games47% · 168 games
Ember Spiritbryle-
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderBob
50% · 237 games57% · 109 games
Enigmakasane
Enigma
Earthshaker
EarthshakerShanks
49% · 121 game43% · 146 games
RubickAri
Rubick
43% · 138 games
UndyingWhitemon
Undying
Game 2prediction correct39:33
Execration 53%TSM 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 1:05:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckBob
58% · 305 games50% · 52 games
Naga SirenTimado
Naga Siren
Monkey King
Monkey KingPalos
49% · 278 games51% · 403 games
Tinybryle-
Tiny
Visage
VisageTino-
53% · 199 games57% · 138 games
Enigmakasane
Enigma
Earthshaker
EarthshakerShanks
48% · 129 games42% · 153 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
39% · 165 games
ClockwerkWhitemon
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2